I spent most of the fourth quarter between the Jaguars and Chiefs thinking about how to best summarize Trevor Lawrence’s career since entering the league as the No. 1 draft pick in 2021. And then Lawrence decided to make my job easier by tripping over his own lineman before slowly getting up and frantically rushing into the end zone for the game-winning score Monday night.
Just photoshop Urban Meyer’s face over the left leg of guard Patrick Mekari and you have the perfect video summary of Lawrence’s first five seasons in the league.
It’s rarely been pretty, and even Lawrence’s best moments have been chaotic, including the 27-point comeback playoff win over the Chargers during the 2022 season. But the flashes that Lawrence displayed in the Jaguars’ 31–28 statement victory over the Chiefs on Monday explain why several teams would still jump at the opportunity to swap quarterbacks with Jacksonville.
Before the longest one-yard touchdown run ever, Lawrence delivered a 33-yard deep shot to Brian Thomas Jr. to ignite the game-winning drive and followed that with a 13-yard completion to Dyami Brown to put the Jaguars inside the red zone. But then came the step backward when the Jaguars were called for a delay of game. Lawrence finished 18-of-25 for 221 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and added 10 carries for 54 yards and two scores.
The Jaguars just like to make it difficult on themselves, but even then they’re in a better situation than most franchises despite the occasional head-scratching interception from Lawrence, which occurred Monday night to allow the Chiefs back in the game.
Here’s something that hasn’t been discussed enough. Maybe Lawrence might never play up to his pre-draft hype, and that’s O.K. Eventually, the flashes need to become routine plays, but he showed on his 26th birthday that he’s a star quarterback in this league.
Maybe he’ll end up joining the elite category of signal-callers as he develops more chemistry with first-year coach Liam Coen. And if he doesn’t, Lawrence’s floor still looks very appealing.
Lawrence could be an outlier when examining the careers of quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall this century. He’s not in the superstar category that Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck reside in, but he’s nowhere close to joining JaMarcus Russell, Jameis Winston and David Carr over in the bust category.
Lawrence could eventually join the category of Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Alex Smith as quarterbacks who endured their respective growing pains before reviving their careers away from the team that originally drafted them. But the Jaguars might never give up on Lawrence’s upside regardless of how bumpy it gets. It’s as if Jacksonville has a ton invested in the erratic stock from the startup tech company that may or may not change the world. It could eventually plummet (think Sam Bradford), but the Jaguars are wise to hold and find out where this goes.
There’s a strong possibility that we set Lawrence’s bar way too high. He might never reach peak Luck or become as electric as Michael Vick. Perhaps he’s just Carson Palmer, and that’s not a bad thing. Still, Lawrence has ways to go before achieving what Palmer did with the Bengals and Cardinals (not to mention a bumpy detour with the Raiders).
Maybe we shouldn’t focus so much on how good Lawrence can become. He was pretty damn good in his second season under the guidance of Doug Pederson. And it’s also fair to say that we’ve made too many excuses for Lawrence because he endured a nightmare rookie season under Meyer.
Perhaps the best way for Lawrence to truly become great is by consistently guiding the Jaguars to the playoffs regardless of how his performances look. He and Coen have Jacksonville headed in the right direction after an impressive 4–1 start. Suddenly, the AFC South battle between the Jaguars and the 4–1 Colts might be the most intriguing divisional race.
What’s scary about these rising Jaguars is that they have beaten the 49ers and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks without unlocking the receiving duo of Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter, who finally made an impact on the offensive side with three catches for 64 yards Monday. But, again, the flashes were there for what this offense can become over the next few months.
Teams won’t be lining up to face the Jaguars in the postseason, especially not against their opportunistic defense that has racked up 14 takeaways and picked off Patrick Mahomes near the goal line for a 99-yard pick-six.
These Jaguars are in good hands with Coen and new GM James Gladstone. But this surprising situation wouldn’t be as bright without Lawrence. He’s the reason why we shouldn’t sleep on the Jags anymore, and that might be the best way to define Lawrence as a quarterback. He has earned our attention.
